TRENDSETTERS: ZenithOptimedia's Jonathan Barnard Foresees 3 Years of Advertising Growth
Jonathan Barnard, Head of Publications at ZenithOptimedia's London Headquarters, has very good news. He estimates that 2010 global ad expenditure will have grown by 4.9% by the year's end and that constitutes a "surprisingly strong recovery." He also believes that the next three years will see continued annual global advertising growth -- around 4.6% to 5.2%. Those percentages may be below the long-term trend rate of 6%; however, they do demonstrate that advertisers are feeling more confident about spending, particularly as corporate profitability is now stronger.
There's no question that developing markets are leading the rate of growth; they will collectively represent 35.9% of the total global ad market by 2013. According to Barnard, "In recent years there has been a big difference between the growth rates of developed and developing markets, and we expect this to continue." He adds, "We'll see China outpace Germany as the world's #3 ad market in 2011, and Russia will enter the Top 10 in 2012." Interestingly, China is currently just over half (52%) the size of Japan, the second-largest ad market, and will be three-quarters (76%) of its size in 2013. However, Japan will certainly remain as the #2 ad market through 2013.
The Top 10 Markets in 2010:
- USA
- Japan
- Germany
- China
- UK
- Brazil
- France
- Italy
- Australia
- Canada
Jonathan Barnard also characterized the world's Top 10 ad markets as falling into four basic groups: 1. Japan with a growth forecast of 5% between 2010 and 2013; 2. The US and Western Europe's largest countries at a growth rate of 7-9% during the coming 3-year period; 3. Australia and Canada, markets that did well during the downturn, to grow at 15-17%; 4. China and Brazil to grow at 51% and 31% respectively.
Other projected growth rates between 2010 and 2013 include: Latin America to grow by 26%, Central & Eastern Europe by 31% and Asia Pacific excluding Japan to grow by 36%. The rest of the world (primarily Middle East and Africa) will grow by 24%.
