John Price Shares a 2025 Latin America Forecast Essential to Marketers…
John Price has focused his career on studying Latin American markets and guiding the world’s largest companies on how best to grow and defend their business interests in the region. He is one of the pioneers of market intelligence and an expert thought leader in Latin American business and political and economic trends.
Each year, John and his team at Americas Market Intelligence (AMI), Latin America’s leading independent market intelligence firm, present their analysis of the region’s economy, political dynamic, business risks, and market opportunities.
While AMI information is always essential for marketers, this year has increased considerations regarding new political leaders in many Latin American countries and some uncertainty about relationships with the United States given the current presidential candidates.
The AMI team also outlines “Five Impactful Medium-Term Trends,” two of which we’ll touch on here. Plus, a poll gauging the Market Risks of Most Concern offers a snapshot of anxieties within the region.
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LATIN AMERICA REAL GROWTH AHEAD OF THE US AND EU IN 2025
In terms of real growth in 2025, Latin America is projected to grow by 2.3%. This is ahead of the US and the EU, both looking at roughly 1.6%. Latin America’s growth still lags behind China and India but is on par with world real growth rates. This is an improvement over the past when the region regularly fell behind world growth percentages.
GROWTH OUTLOOKS VARY DRAMATICALLY BY COUNTRY
Argentina could grow by 29% when measured in dollars, although its real growth will be closer to 4% or 5%. The country is on the cusp of floating its currency and even floating with dollarization. According to John Price, “Either of those moves, if done correctly, and we believe it will be done well, will unleash all kinds of institutional monies held by hedge funds, private equity, and others prohibited from investing in a currency-controlled market. The capital markets in Argentina are small compared to its economic size so that this move will cause asset prices and the price of the currency to balloon.
“In Mexico,” he continues, “there’s still a fair bit of uncertainty, and therefore, there’s uncertainty around the currency. Although Mexico may experience 1.5% to 2% real growth next year, in currency terms, it will probably continue to depreciate.”
Politics matters, and politics is changing the roster of those countries that drive your business in Latin America.
LATIN AMERICA: FASTEST AGING REGION OF THE WORLD
Latin America is the fastest-aging region in the world. While 13% of the region is over 60 years old today, that percentage will increase to 18% by 2035. To illustrate this further, consider a large market like Brazil. Over the next four years, Brazil will have approximately five million more consumers above 50 and about three million fewer consumers under 30.
Interestingly, this represents the first generation to retire with savings. Their formative years were in the boom-bust 1970s and 80s, which instilled a sense of individualism in them. They are also known for their brand loyalty, which will significantly impact consumer behavior.
“If you’re in a mass-consumer product category or service category, you have to begin shifting your offering, your messaging, and your focus,” says Price.
”This is occurring across most of the markets in Latin America, certainly the bigger markets like Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and Brazil. In some Central American markets, it’s still a very young population and not aging as quickly, but in your bigger markets, this is a phenomenon that you must be aware of if you’re a consumer-facing business.”
Interestingly, Gen Z, or Zoomers, in contrast to Boomers, now represent 20% of Latin America today, but they will increase to 27% by 2035. Given that their formative years were spent during COVID-19, they are socially conscious consumers and high savers who are uncertain about the future. Considered “brand disruptors,” they show no loyalty to traditional brands.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE:
LATAM Leading in Enterprise Adoption of AI in Most Sectors
The market experts at AMI believe that artificial intelligence will benefit Latin America the most in those emerging markets where AI will raise workers’ productivity through automation. Companies in the region are investing heavily in Artifical Intelligence and hundreds of internal projects are currently adopting AI. artificial intelligence, as you can see on the left side.
AI FIRST WAVE: INTERNAL PROCESSES
The first wave of AI in Latin America has worked well for the financial services industry as it has been very focused on internal processes, like improving credit applications, improving account opening processing, improving fraud detection. There are already seeing a lot of real-life use cases in this area.
AI SECOND WAVE: THE CONSUMER
The second wave, expected in 2025, will focus on the consumer or end-user with an emphasis on personalization. Privacy concerns exist —not only from a consumer perspective but also from a regulatory perspective. Each country in Latin America has a local equivalent of GDPR, and AI is a hot topic regarding data privacy.
At AMI’s Annual Analysis of the Year Ahead, the firm conducts an audience poll gauging the Market Risks of Most Concern to present a snapshot of the anxieties of businesspeople within the region.
Here are this year’s results:
Which of the following market risks most concern you? (Pick any two).
36% – Continued Political Populism
36% – Mexico Slowdown and Further Peso Weakening
35% – US Change in Trade Policies Resulting in Higher Tariffs/Protectionism
22% – Security Issues in Mexico and elsewhere
20% – Economic Slowdown in Brazil
19% – Escalating Conflict in the Middle East and/or Ukraine
19% – US-Led Recession
14% – Failure to Launch in Argentina, Backtracking on Reforms
9% – Competition from Disruption Business Models
5% – Cybersecurity
ABOUT JOHN PRICE
John is a veteran of Latin America market consulting and one of the leading public speakers and thought leaders in the region. Since 1993, John has advised more than 50 of the global 1000 firms on their business strategies and market intelligence needs in Latin America. John’s consulting career began in Mexico where he founded InfoAmericas, which by 2003 became the largest independent market intelligence firm in Latin America. The firm was sold in 2007 to Kroll, the world’s largest corporate investigations firm and John launched Kroll’s first market intelligence practice. In 2011, John left Kroll and co-founded Americas Market Intelligence, now with offices in Miami, Mexico City, São Paulo and San Francisco.
Over the course of supervising close to 1,200 client engagements in Latin America, John has launched several of the firm’s industry practices including: Payments, Logistics, Natural Resources and Industrial products & services. He continues to advise clients in more than 20 industries across Latin America, providing a level of strategic input on projects that few in the region can match.
ABOUT AMERICAS MARKET INTELLIGENCE (AMI)
Americas Market Intelligence (AMI) got its start in 1992 in Mexico City under the brand name InfoMex, focused primarily on Mexican market intelligence. By 1995 the company was conducting studies in South America, prompting a name change to InfoAmericas. In 1997, a second office was opened in São Paulo, and in 2000, a regional office was opened in Miami.
By 2005, the AMI team completed its 1,000th client engagement in Latin America. InfoAmericas was sold to Kroll in 2007, forming Kroll’s first market intelligence division. In 2011, its consultants regrouped under a new independent brand, Americas Market Intelligence. By 2012, the AMI team had completed its 2,000th assignment in Latin America and as of 2021, completed more than 3,500 market research projects for the region.
In 2003, AMI realized that Latin American market experience was insufficient to serve client needs, so their consultants began forming industry practices. They have since built seven: Payments, Logistics, Healthcare, Natural Resources/Infrastructure, Consumer Goods & Retail, Insurance, Industrial, and Education. Furthermore, expanding client needs obliged AMI to widen its service offering. Today, a blend of market research, competitive intelligence, political, regulatory, and economic risk analysis is put to work to help companies seek opportunity as well as mitigate risk.
The greatest testimony to our success is the confidence placed in our firm by our clients. 85% of our revenue comes from repeat clients, some of whom we have retained for more than 20 years.
